The radar: ELM-2084
A truck-mounted S-band AESA from IAI Elta. Detects rockets, artillery shells and mortars at the moment of launch, tracks them through their arc, and computes the impact point in real time.
The decision
If the predicted impact is in open ground, Iron Dome lets the rocket fly — no missile launched. If it's headed for a populated area, the battle-management computer assigns a Tamir interceptor. This single decision keeps the cost equation workable.
Tamir interceptor
A small two-stage missile, mid-course updates from the ground radar, then a proximity-fused warhead. Reported single-shot kill probability is high but classified. Each Tamir costs an estimated $40–100k vs. the rocket's $500–10k — economically unbalanced but militarily essential.
Performance
Israel reports ~90% intercept rate against rockets predicted to impact populated areas. Independent analysts argue the real number is lower. Either way, the system has been combat-proven against tens of thousands of incoming rounds since 2011.